Canada’s farmers will seed less wheat and more canola than forecast in April, a government agency said.
Wheat planting will rise 1.3 percent this year to 24.1 million acres from 2014, Statistics Canada in Ottawa said in a report. That trailed 24.8 million that the government forecast in April and the 24.77 million expected by analysts, based on the average of eight estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
Canola seeding will fall 2.4 percent to 19.8 million acres from 2014. Analysts expected 19.5 million and the government forecast 19.4 million in April.
Canada is the world’s top canola producer and the second- biggest wheat exporter. The government interviewed 24,500 farmers from May 28 to June 11. Frost last month killed some crops, while dry weather in the Prairie provinces reduced planting.
“A lot of this report comes under some question as to what’s happened since the survey was taken with some of the adverse weather,” David Reimann, a market analyst at Cargill in Winnipeg, Manitoba, said in a telephone interview. “Will we actually see some of those acres, or will they be abandoned?”
Farmers were reseeding crops in June, and a lack of rainfall may have hampered those efforts, he said.
After beneficial weather in spring allowed farmers to sow early, a frost at the end of May damaged crops across parts of the Prairies.
Spring-wheat prospects have been “dimmed by drought,” and Alberta and Saskatchewan face a moisture shortfall, Martell Crop Projections said in a report on June 24.
Development of 45 percent of Saskatchewan’s canola crop is behind normal, according to government reports.
As many as 1.5 million canola acres were reseeded after frost damage, and some were replanted with barley and wheat, John Duvenaud, the publisher of Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory in Winnipeg, said on a conference call with reporters.
Barley and wheat acres are probably higher than the government forecast, he said.
The market is focused on yield potential amid dry conditions, Reimann of Cargill said.
On June 26, canola prices on ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg reached C$532 ($428) a metric ton, the highest since Sept. 3, 2013. Through Monday, the oilseed climbed 18 percent this year.
“We’re going to be tight on canola this fall,” Duvenaud of Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory said.
Spring-wheat planting will fall 1.5 percent from a year earlier, while durum seeding will jump 21 percent and winter wheat will slump 26 percent, the government said on Tuesday. Barley acreage will increase 11 percent.
Planting of dry, field peas will drop 2.4 percent to 3.71 million acres, while lentil seeding will climb 24 percent to 3.87 million.
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