LYNNWOOD — Is the Puget Sound region getting its fill of apartments?
One economist thinks so.
Snohomish County has seen a strong increase in the number of new apartments, condos and other multi-family residences in the past three years and the trend is even stronger in King County, said Bill Conerly, a Lake Oswego, Oregon,-based economic consultant.
The reason for the apartment boom is a generation of Millennials — the children of Baby Boomers — who enjoy living an urban lifestyle, he said.
“The people who are loving apartment- or condo-living today are young and childless. They’re going to have children and they’re going to change their attitude,” Conerly said. “They don’t believe they’re going to change their attitude, but, believe you me, the let’s-go-out-every-night-pushing-a-stroller isn’t quite as nice.”
“Walking down to the bar every night is a little more challenging when your toddler isn’t allowed into the bar.”
Conerly was speaking Thursday at the Lynnwood Convention Center to about 220 gathered for Economic Alliance Snohomish County’s annual forecast.
He told the crowd that multi-family housing has been about 30 percent of all construction in Snohomish County historically. But it’s been 40 percent to 50 percent of all housing in the past three years in the county. That mirrors a national trend.
He doesn’t believe that it’s the need for cheaper housing.
“If they were looking for cheap housing, they would move to Tukwila,” Conerly said. “They want the lifestyle of walk to coffee, walk to restaurant, walk to the bar.”
If the Millennials do tire of apartment living, that could be good for Snohomish County, Conerly said. When they move out, they’ll be looking for homes, schools and yards.
“I don’t know if it’s this year, next year or the year after,” Conerly said. “But I think five to 10 years from now, we’ll be saying, ‘Look at all of those empty apartments.’ And look at the strong demand for single-family homes and yards will come back into vogue. That’s positive for Snohomish County that’s pretty suburban.”
While that portends well for the county, there are other concerns on the horizon, Conerly said. He pointed to federal defense spending that has been on a decline for the past few years. He said that there’s talk of a new round of base closures.
While that’s at least a couple of years away, people in the county should be aware of it, Conerly said.
“Let me just say it is like rolling the dice,” Conerly said. “If you’re thinking about Naval Station Everett, the odds are on your side, the odds are clearly on your side. But if it comes up snake eyes, you lose a very big facility.”
Another concern for the county is a recent drop in exports, in part due to the American dollar being stronger than other currency, Conerly said.
Also speaking at the forecast was state economist Steve Lerch who told the crowd that he believes the economy looks to improve for the next couple of years.
He said job growth has been strong in Snohomish and King counties, there’s a back log of jet orders for Boeing and oil prices being down is good for everyone outside of the states of North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Texas
“Cheaper energy is really a good thing for consumers and it’s a good thing for the state of Washington,” Lerch said.
He added that there’s some concerns. China buys a lot of goods from Washington state and its economy is no longer growing at double-digit rates.
Housing starts are trending up, but remain below the state’s historic average. And there are still a lot of long-term unemployed still looking for jobs.
“What we are continuing to see is sort of moderate improvement with the economy,” Lerch said. “Things are certainly getting better. But, because I’m an economist, I can’t just be robustly cheery. I need to mention some things that are maybe not so good.”
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